WASHINGTON — As Speaker Mike Johnson marks one year on the job Friday, he’s fighting hard to preserve House Republicans’ razor-thin majority — and his speakership.
Multiple House Republicans said they believe the Louisiana Republican, who rose from relative obscurity to the top of the conference last year, can beat back his critics and win the speaker’s gavel for another two years. But only if the GOP manages to win control of the House again in November’s elections.
Johnson’s chances will improve significantly if Republicans expand their majority. Lawmakers typically reward leaders who log significant miles on the campaign trail and rake in cash, as Johnson has.
But if the Democrats triumph on Nov. 5, four GOP lawmakers — including allies close to Johnson — said they were certain the speaker would step down from leadership.
“If we are in the minority, there is no chance that Johnson is leader,” said a House Republican who has campaigned with Johnson, one of several lawmakers who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
“No way” would Johnson seek to be minority leader, as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., did when Democrats were swept out of power in the tea party wave of 2010, said a second GOP colleague who also campaigned with Johnson this fall.
Johnson could also be forced out if House Republicans win in November but their fragile majority shrinks even further, with at least two conservatives vowing they won’t vote for him and others on the fence.
If Johnson is out of the picture, it could spark a fierce battle for minority leader between two of his key lieutenants and most trusted advisers, both political mentors of Johnson’s: Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.
Johnson won’t address any questions about what he’d do in the minority and hasn’t discussed the possibility with lawmakers or aides.
“Truthfully, I haven’t considered that because I am 100% focused on the job at hand, and I genuinely believe that we are going to win. I’m going to be the speaker of the House,” Johnson said in a recent sit-down interview with NBC News at a campaign stop in Hellertown, Pennsylvania. “I haven’t devoted one moment of thought to the other alternative.”
Regardless of whether Johnson stays or goes in the minority, it will be a “drag-out dogfight” for the top job, said one Republican official, even as the party’s wounds from the last two bitter and contentious fights for speaker remain fresh.
“It’s going to be a free-for-all” if Republicans lose the House and Trump loses the White House, a third House GOP lawmaker added.
Others on the current leadership team prefer to stay out of the battle up top: Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., according to a source, will aim to keep his current vote-counting post, the No. 3 position now but the No. 2 position in the minority.
Meanwhile, GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., has set her sights beyond the confines of congressional leadership, eyeing a Cabinet post in a potential Donald Trump administration instead, according to two sources privy to conversations between the Stefanik and Trump teams.
“She is traveling the country on his behalf, donating millions of dollars to the team and is a top national surrogate,” said one GOP lawmaker who has been watching Stefanik’s moves. “The Trump team is very much in sync with her.”
Scalise vs. Jordan?
Both Scalise and Jordan have been laying the groundwork for whatever comes next. They’ve been crisscrossing the country, fundraising for and appearing alongside GOP candidates whose votes they’ll need for any future bid. Scalise, who is campaigning in the Pacific Northwest this week, has raised money for 210 candidates this cycle, including events for 160 of them, his team said. And over his decade in leadership, Scalise has given more than $70 million to the GOP’s official campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
While Scalise has been campaigning for colleagues for years, Jordan’s recent efforts have raised eyebrows in Washington. As a leader of the rabble-rousing Freedom Caucus, Jordan would previously campaign to elect like-minded conservative rebels. But this cycle, he’s stumping for Republicans across the political spectrum as he seeks to expand his support in the 220-member conference.
All told, Jordan has supported over 190 Republican colleagues and candidates this cycle, including some who opposed him for speaker last year, according to a source with direct knowledge of Jordan’s operation. He has given $2.5 million to the NRCC to help retain the majority, the source added.
Last weekend, Johnson invited Jordan and others to campaign with him in Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota. The three-state swing included events for battleground candidates including Rep. John James and military veteran Tom Barrett, both of Michigan, and Judge Joe McGraw of Illinois.
“Jordan has been working hard for a diverse group of our conference,” said a House Republican who has spent time on the campaign trail with Jordan.
Asked by NBC News if he was looking at running for a leadership spot next month, Jordan had no comment. Questions have swirled about Scalise’s health after he was diagnosed last year with a type of blood cancer. But he is now in remission and told NBC News that he was recovering well after recently undergoing hip replacement surgery. The longtime No. 2 GOP leader, Scalise also has not spoken publicly about what he’d run for in the minority.
Both Scalise and Jordan have their detractors. In the wake of Kevin McCarthy’s ouster last year, both men failed to win the votes needed to become speaker. Jordan was rejected twice, and Emmer was also denied the gavel, paving the way for Johnson — then the little-known GOP Conference vice chair and No. 6 in leadership — to rise to speaker.
But unlike the 218 votes needed to win the speaker’s gavel, a much lower threshold — just a simple majority of all House Republicans — is needed to win the minority leader post. That vote happens in a closed-door secret ballot, sometimes leading to unpredictability.
Scalise and Jordan each have personal friendships with Johnson. Scalise, a fellow Louisianan, has mentored Johnson during the latter’s eight years in Congress, and the two men remain close. Jordan is also a mentor and has vacationed with Johnson — they took a trip to Israel together with their wives in 2020.
Perhaps the biggest wild card in the leadership sweepstakes is former President Donald Trump. While both Scalise and Jordan are Trump allies, Jordan has been one of the former president’s chief defenders on Capitol Hill for years, railing against the two Trump impeachments and leading a new special committee this Congress combating what Trump has called the “weaponization” of government against conservatives. If he weighs in on a contested race, Trump could be the difference maker.
Johnson’s uphill climb
Even if House Republicans eke out a victory, nothing is certain for Johnson. In his first year, Johnson demonstrated he could be a dealmaker: He worked with Democrats on three separate occasions to avert government shutdowns, passed critical military aid for Ukraine and Israel and prevented a lapse of controversial surveillance powers, known as Section 702 of FISA.
But in the process, he infuriated conservatives.
“He’s burned a lot” of goodwill, said Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who voted against the most recent stopgap bill to avoid a shutdown and who has already vowed to oppose Johnson. “I think it would take major resuscitation from Trump or something to get him over the finish line.”
Another conservative hard-liner, Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., said he didn’t know if he could support Johnson again.
And Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who unsuccessfully mounted a campaign to oust Johnson — whom she described as a “uniparty” speaker — has vowed never to vote for him.
Johnson has been working hard to appease some of these far-right firebrands. In June, he awarded Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., a former Freedom Caucus chairman, a coveted seat on the Intelligence Committee. And this month, Johnson traveled to Perry’s district to campaign and raise cash for the congressman, who has become a top Democratic target.
But asked if he would vote for Johnson for speaker, Perry wouldn’t answer, adding that he wanted to see leadership implement spending cuts and rules changes before committing to supporting a candidate.
“I drive a hard bargain,” Perry said in an interview. “I’m friends with Mike. I think he’s doing a good job. I think he’s got a hard job. But, you know, we still have to do our work for our constituents, our bosses. And you know, I don’t work for Mike Johnson, I work for the people of the 10th District.”
There are some frustrations with Johnson and his last-minute rise through the leadership ranks. For example, Johnson has offered unsolicited advice on messaging techniques to some senior lawmakers, which has rubbed them the wrong way, according to a source who witnessed a specific interaction on the campaign trail this month.
Johnson has stayed close with Trump throughout the campaign, speaking to him regularly and telling him on multiple occasions he could be the “most consequential president of the modern era.” But if Trump throws a curve ball, saying he wants someone else as speaker, “that would create all sorts of problems,” a GOP lawmaker said.
‘Juggling flaming chainsaws’
Others offered praise for Johnson, who was suddenly thrust into the spotlight last year after a small band of far-right insurgents teamed with Democrats to end McCarthy’s speakership. Vulnerable Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., predicted Johnson will be able to remain as speaker if the GOP keeps the majority.
“I think he got a good shot at it. Obviously, in a tight majority, there’s people probably playing some games with the speakership,” Valadao said. “I think the majority of members are happy with what he’s doing. I mean, he’s got the toughest job in Washington, D.C., right now, and he’s trying to navigate it.”
Added retiring Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., who served as the interim speaker between McCarthy and Johnson: “He’s learned to swim in this role really well with the bright lights on him. It’s very tough and he’s proved himself adept and been learning on the job.”
Wisconsin GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who got into a heated argument on the House floor in April with a handful of conservatives who wanted to oust Johnson, defended the speaker in a text to NBC News.
“Mike has been juggling flaming chainsaws since he was elected to the Speakership and has helped this conference move forward,” Van Orden said.
Johnson predicted that Republicans would sweep the elections and be able to govern next term, a contrast from the chaotic 118th Congress.
“If we have a bicameral approach, Republicans in both chambers work together to develop that agenda and implement it, and President Trump is guiding the way, I think you will certainly have a lot less dissension in the ranks on our side,” he told NBC News.
“I think governing is going to be a whole lot easier come January,” the speaker added.
